Michel Shahadeh
For many long decades, American influence appeared like an inescapable destiny; Washington controlled the fates of states, changed regimes, and imposed its economic and political conditions on the entire world. It was depicted in the Arab and global imagination as an absolute, unconquerable power, to the point that many dealt with it as if it had replaced God’s will on Earth. Yet this illusion began to crumble with every war the United States fought, from Vietnam to Iraq and Afghanistan, where it became clear that military and economic power, no matter how great, cannot impose its will without limits. The United States spent trillions of dollars and lost thousands of lives, but reaped nothing except the shattering of its image and the erosion of trust in its ability to lead. Then came the financial crisis of 2008 to reveal the fragility of the American neoliberal model, while the right-wing “Trumpist” phenomenon detonated deep divisions that left America torn by competing interests and struggling to preserve its internal cohesion, after it shifted from being a source of stability for the global order to one of the most prominent sources of disruption within it.
The global order is collapsing with the retreat of the American empire, yet the collapse of the old order does not mean the end of history; rather, it marks the beginning of a new phase whose features are being formed in the womb of chaos. This is the phase we are living today: regional and international systems are unraveling, major economies are shaking, new powers are rising in search of their place, and traditional ones are descending from their thrones. At the heart of these earthquakes stands the Middle East, the most sensitive and dangerous region in the world, given its strategic location, natural resources, and religious and civilizational symbolism. Whoever succeeds in imposing their will in our Arab region will possess the keys to influence the coming global order. Hence the scramble of major and regional powers—from America, Russia, and China to “Israel,” Turkey, and Iran—to redraw the map of this region in ways that serve their interests.
There are three projects contending today on the regional stage, none of which is capable of fully succeeding. The “Israeli” project, despite its military superiority and absolute Western support, lives an existential predicament. For a long time, the Zionist entity believed it could impose its will by force, but small Gaza turned itself into an impregnable fortress and redefined the balance of power, to the point that the resistance there became capable of disrupting the calculations of the most advanced army in the region. The Turkish project, led by Erdoğan, which seeks to revive the luster of Ottomanism through the gateway of political Islam, collides first with Turkey’s internal limits—economic and political divisions—and second with international and regional balances. As for Russia and China, despite their significant rise over the past two decades, they do not consider filling the vacuum in the Middle East a priority, but rather merely a necessary arena of balance within broader struggles in Europe and Asia.
The only project that appeared to carry elements of foundational strength is the Iranian project. Tehran managed to weave a wide network of allies extending from Baghdad to Beirut and on to Sana’a, and it consolidated a solid industrial and military base. Yet this power remains burdened by sectarian policies and internal divisions that have curbed its ability to crystallize as an inclusive project. Consequently, the regional scene still appears as an arena of incomplete or distorted projects, incapable of rising to the level of a coherent alternative order.
The central question remains: where are the Arabs in all of this? And do they still have the ability to reclaim the initiative, or has the train passed them by? They are shackled by Sykes–Picot systems that cloak themselves in Arabism outwardly, while in reality being beholden to the West and reconciled with the Zionist project. Historical experience has taught us that nations are not born complete; they pass through arduous labors before they rise. Europe unified after centuries of division; Japan emerged from its isolation to become a major power; Russia rose from the rubble of the First World War; China from the Second; Vietnam from the heart of the Cold War; and Iran from the global crises of the 1970s. Only the Arabs remained outside the moment of action, especially after the collapse of the Nasserist unity experiment, the failure of the Baath project, and the faltering of the liberation of Palestine to this day—leaving them without a unifying project or unified leadership.
Yet the arena was not empty. Since the 1970s, an axis of resistance has taken shape, extending from Palestine and Lebanon to Syria, Iran, and Yemen. Despite the differences within it, this axis formed an independent force that thwarted the “New Middle East” project, halted attempts to liquidate the Palestinian cause, and exhausted the United States and the Zionist entity in long and grueling wars. Through it, Russia returned to the international stage via Syria, while China gradually moved from a defensive position to become an international political actor. This axis proved that oppressed peoples are capable of making history when they possess the will. Recent events have powerfully confirmed this: Gaza, despite siege and repeated destruction, has become a global icon of resistance, and in every confrontation it has proven that power is not measured by armaments alone, but by will, determination, and readiness for sacrifice. This small strip of land disrupted the calculations of the largest armies and plunged “Israel” into an unprecedented internal crisis over the viability of its project, reimposing the Palestinian cause on the world as a cause of freedom and human dignity before it is a national issue.
The world around us is changing at an astonishing pace. America is no longer able to lead the international system alone; it has become mired in an internal struggle over its identity and role. Russia seeks to restore its glory through its conflict in Ukraine and its presence in the Middle East, while China rises as an economic and military power still testing the limits of its political intervention. The European Union, meanwhile, lives a deep identity crisis, divided among its nationalisms and the rise of the extreme fascist right, and hesitant about its position between America, Russia, and China. Amid these transformations, the global order becomes a theater of chaos, yet at the same time it opens a rare opportunity for peoples and nations capable of investing this collapse to craft a new position for themselves.
In this context, the Arab region appears as a historical testing ground. It has been the theater of major wars for more than half a century—from the Arab–Zionist conflict to the American invasion of Iraq, and from the Lebanese civil war to the Syrian and Yemeni wars. This arena was not merely a margin of international conflicts; it was their beating heart. Therefore, it can be said that the Arabs did not disappear entirely from the stage of history; rather, they were always its raw material and fuel, without occupying a position of leadership. Major powers used their land and resources as an arena to settle scores, while their ruling regimes contented themselves with dependence and subservience.
The Arabs possess all the components of a nation—language, history, geography, and resources—but these components can turn into a burden if they are not forged into a unifying political project that keeps pace with the spirit of the age. What is required is a democratic project that returns decision-making to the peoples; a social project that confronts poverty and marginalization; an integrative nationalist project that dissolves fragmentation and state-centrism; and a humanistic project that transcends narrow nationalism toward broader global cooperation. Today, the Arabs stand at a fateful crossroads: either they rise within a unifying framework that mobilizes their energies, or they recede into the margins of the maps.
The experiences of Yemen, Lebanon, Gaza, and Iran have proven that will is capable of overturning balances, and that what was once deemed “impossible” can become reality if leadership and vision exist. Yet these models, however important, remain partial and limited, and cannot substitute for a comprehensive Arab project. The Arab nation, with its demographic weight, civilizational depth, and unique geographic position, is too large to be reduced to the margins of others’ projects or to remain subordinate to them. Today, Arabs are called upon to formulate their own project—one worthy of their history and capacities and that places them as active partners in building the new world, not as followers to whom roles are dictated. This is not an intellectual luxury, but an existential necessity: either the Arabs write their future with their own hands, or it will be written about them as a nation that failed to seize its historical moment.
Here lies the essence of the challenge: to possess the courage to say that the time of waiting has ended, and that the Arab moment has arrived. Either we write a new chapter in the book of history, or we leave others to write it for us. In both cases, the world will not remain as it is.