The Al-Aqsa Flood was neither a fleeting incident nor a limited military confrontation; rather, it was a decisive strategic turning point that will be recorded in the region’s history as a massive earthquake that overturned all balances. The flood triggered deep and rapid transformations in both the regional and international environments and redefined the essence of the conflict with the Zionist project—not as a border dispute or political settlement, but as an existential struggle that cannot be divided or coexisted with. Judging this flood cannot be done amid the battle or under the pressure of daily bloodshed; it can only be assessed after all its repercussions are revealed and its effects consolidated. Yet one constant remains: the question is no longer “Are you for or against?” but “How do we deal with the paths opened by the flood?”
This historic event exposed the limits of Arab and Palestinian strategic thinking and highlighted the need for leadership with foresight and the ability to seize opportunities rather than merely reacting belatedly. The flood was not born of an emotional moment; it was the product of deep awareness, long-term preparation, and rare boldness in decision-making. Its primary goal was to break entrenched patterns of decades and to reshape the strategic environment in a way that paves the path for a new trajectory unlike previous negotiation or attrition attempts.
From Oslo to the Flood: The Collapse of the Settlement Illusion
Since the signing of the Oslo Agreement, the great illusion called “peace” was promoted, presented to the Palestinians as a gateway to an independent state, return, and comprehensive solution. But after three decades, it became clear that the project delivered only a limited authority that became a security agent for the occupation, while settlement expansion, Judaization, and annexation projects continued. The official Palestinian arena was completely paralyzed under Oslo, sinking into internal corruption that reduced it to merely a hostage of disarmament demands.
As for the Palestinian resistance, since 2006 it has demonstrated legendary epic resilience in successive battles in Gaza. Yet this extraordinary steadfastness did not translate into genuine political achievement, as the Zionist entity repeatedly reimposed the attrition equation after each confrontation, while the Palestinian and Arab political environment remained incapable of converting field victories into strategic gains.
At the Arab level, regimes degenerated to a point where they treated Palestine as an “internal Palestinian issue,” not a pan-Arab or pan-Islamic cause. Some of these regimes even became entangled in shared interests with the U.S.-backed extreme Israeli right, amid escalating Judaization projects in Jerusalem and the annexation of the West Bank. In this total deadlock, the flood emerged as a decisive strategic act, opening a new horizon and reshaping the entire scene.
A Security Earthquake: The Fall of the Israeli Deterrence Theory
The Al-Aqsa Flood revealed that Israel’s image as an unbreakable force was merely an accumulated illusion. A besieged resistance, lacking geographic depth and massive resources, proved capable of breaching a military, security, and intelligence system built over decades with Western backing, led by the United States. In just a few hours, the pillars of what is known as Israel’s security doctrine—from deterrence and early warning to decisive power and defense—collapsed.
The resistance penetrated 12 kilometers into the interior and captured a full Israeli brigade responsible for Gaza, exposing the fragility of the entire security system. The notion of the “invincible army” is no longer valid; it is an army that can be defeated and whose pillars can be broken. In this sense, the flood was not merely a military operation but a strategic earthquake that redefined the very nature of Israel.
The Entity on Western Life Support
The flood revealed that Israel is not a self-sufficient entity but depends almost entirely on external political, military, and financial support akin to a “life-support machine.” Once this reality was raised, the strategic question emerged: is Israel still a vital interest for the West, or has it become a growing burden that does more harm than good? Likewise, the normalization project adds nothing substantial for states like Saudi Arabia, which already has a direct strategic relationship with the United States and does not need Israel as a mediator.
Domestically, the flood hastened the exposure of deep contradictions within Israeli society—between religious and secular currents, and between right and left factions—bringing conflicts into the open in a way that threatens to dismantle the internal structure of the entity. Externally, the long-held image of Israel as “the most ethical army” or “the only democracy in the region” collapsed. International courts now treat it as accused of war crimes and genocide, and the charge of “anti-Semitism” is no longer sufficient to silence critics.
A Strategic Decision, Not an Emotional Reaction
One of the questions raised was whether the planners of the flood anticipated Israeli reactions. The truth is that this question is essentially meaningless, as the plan was not based on precise prediction of responses but on making a strategic decision to change the entire environment, with readiness to endure significant repercussions and mitigate them through opening multiple fronts and dispersing pressure via political, media, and diplomatic confrontation, in addition to legendary resilience. Enemy communications themselves revealed a clear strategic approach and meticulous coordination to open fronts in the West Bank, Lebanon, the region, and even at sea and ocean, aiming to prevent pressure from focusing solely on Gaza and to distribute it in a way that Israel cannot contain.
In this sense, the flood was neither random nor an emotional reaction; it was the fruit of long-term planning spanning years, aiming to transform the conflict from perpetual attrition into a state of strategic shift.
A Beginning, Not an End
Nearly two years after the outbreak of the battle, it becomes clear that what we are witnessing is not the end of the flood but its early beginnings. The October 7 operation was the fierce wave that shattered the wall of silence and shook the foundations of illusion, yet its deeper resonance has not yet appeared and will only manifest when the fires of war subside slightly. The ongoing fighting gives Netanyahu space to catch his political breath, occupying the Zionist establishment from acknowledging its resounding failure. Yet the hour of reckoning is inevitable, and when the storm clears, every Israeli political, security, and military official will pay a heavy price.
Even the Palestinian Authority will face difficult popular accountability, as the events revealed its complete incapacity, and the stances of some Arab regimes that opposed or tried to thwart the flood will be recorded as documented betrayal. The flood exposed the entire region, revealing the rot of Arab decline and exposing regimes that could not even seize the suffering of the Palestinian people as an opportunity to take a humane or national stance that preserves their dignity.
The Israeli Project: Comprehensive Displacement
Conversely, Israel has had a clear strategic project since its establishment: expansion based on displacement. Its initial plan was massacres and uprooting, and today the project is openly announced: the displacement of Gaza, the West Bank, and even the lands of 1948. Some Arab states are engaged in efforts to find alternative locations for Palestinians—from Iraq and the Syrian Desert to Canada and Australia. Discussions also include settling Palestinians in Syria, Lebanon, some Gulf states, and North Africa.
In this sense, the flood accelerated what would have occurred in a decade or more, bringing challenges to the present rather than the future. Confrontation today is far better than facing it ten years from now when everyone is weaker and more vulnerable. The flood shortened distances and told the world: “Face the struggle now—from the battle of awareness to the battles of preparation and engagement.”
The greatest achievement of the Al-Aqsa Flood is that it decisively resolved the battle of awareness. For decades, it was said that there was a need to “raise awareness” of the Palestinian cause; the flood confirmed that awareness has already taken root in the consciousness of the nation and its youth, declaring that Israel is an entity that cannot coexist with a free Palestinian people. We have thus moved from the stage of theorizing to a stage of firmly established foundational values, and it is no longer acceptable to speak of the “battle of awareness” but rather of preparation, readiness, and direct engagement.
The Fall of Israel’s Image Globally
The flood proved that Israel is not a natural state but a fragile entity that can be defeated. Its self-sufficient power is no longer enough for survival; it is exposed as an entity living on the ruins of others, sustained by the West with money and arms. Externally, propaganda about the “ethical army” or “the only democracy” no longer deceives anyone. International courts now treat Israel as accused of war crimes, while peoples and movements in the West have returned Palestine to the heart of global consciousness as an inescapable cause of freedom and humanity.
In conclusion, the Al-Aqsa Flood is not merely a military episode but a decisive strategic moment. It resolved the battle of awareness, accelerated confrontation instead of delaying it, and exposed the fragility of the Zionist entity internally and externally. The greatest value of the flood lies not in its heavy tactics or the tremendous losses incurred by the Palestinian people, but in its long-term strategic impact. It marks the beginning of a new era that future generations will speak of as a historical turning point: before the flood and after the flood.